# Table 4c: Pre/Post-GFC Split — Safe Asset Manufacturing Test

Pre-GFC (≤2007): private-label AAA supply filled the safe asset gap.
Post-GFC (≥2009): private safe assets collapsed; sovereign supply became dominant.

## Model Summary

| Model | Dep Var | N | Countries | R² | ρ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| F1a: safe_supply → 10y (pre-GFC) | real_bond_10y | 359 | 23 | 0.262 | 0.834 |
| F1b: safe_supply → 10y (post-GFC) | real_bond_10y | 345 | 23 | 0.488 | 0.834 |
| F2a: Z + supply → 10y (pre-GFC) | real_bond_10y | 359 | 23 | 0.229 | 0.851 |
| F2b: Z + supply → 10y (post-GFC) | real_bond_10y | 345 | 23 | 0.459 | 0.845 |
| F3a: supply → conv yield (pre-GFC) | lending_govt_spread | 124 | 10 | 0.181 | 0.699 |
| F3b: supply → conv yield (post-GFC) | lending_govt_spread | 113 | 10 | 0.089 | 0.813 |
| F4a: global_oadr → 10y (pre-GFC) | real_bond_10y | 359 | 23 | 0.541 | 0.782 |
| F4b: global_oadr → 10y (post-GFC) | real_bond_10y | 345 | 23 | 0.516 | 0.832 |

## Key Coefficients

| Model | Variable | Coef | SE | p-value | Sig |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| F1a: safe_supply → 10y (pre-GFC) | safe_supply_ratio | -5.0734 | 0.9495 | 0.0000 | *** |
| F1b: safe_supply → 10y (post-GFC) | safe_supply_ratio | 2.4894 | 1.7588 | 0.1579 |  |
| F2a: Z + supply → 10y (pre-GFC) | Z_1 | 51.3319 | 16.4549 | 0.0020 | *** |
| F2a: Z + supply → 10y (pre-GFC) | Z_2 | -7.4261 | 2.2397 | 0.0010 | *** |
| F2a: Z + supply → 10y (pre-GFC) | Z_3 | 0.2891 | 0.0852 | 0.0008 | *** |
| F2a: Z + supply → 10y (pre-GFC) | safe_supply_ratio | -4.5622 | 0.9710 | 0.0000 | *** |
| F2b: Z + supply → 10y (post-GFC) | Z_1 | -25.9362 | 27.1693 | 0.3405 |  |
| F2b: Z + supply → 10y (post-GFC) | Z_2 | 3.5806 | 3.4782 | 0.3040 |  |
| F2b: Z + supply → 10y (post-GFC) | Z_3 | -0.1385 | 0.1255 | 0.2706 |  |
| F2b: Z + supply → 10y (post-GFC) | safe_supply_ratio | 2.1474 | 1.7793 | 0.2283 |  |
| F3a: supply → conv yield (pre-GFC) | safe_supply_ratio | -5.2232 | 1.5090 | 0.0008 | *** |
| F3b: supply → conv yield (post-GFC) | safe_supply_ratio | -0.8999 | 2.0204 | 0.6570 |  |
| F4a: global_oadr → 10y (pre-GFC) | global_oadr | -166.1102 | 14.7258 | 0.0000 | *** |
| F4b: global_oadr → 10y (post-GFC) | global_oadr | -23.2306 | 10.7702 | 0.0317 | ** |

*Controls: rgdp_growth, inflation, fiscal_bal_gdp, kaopen, nfa_gdp_lag*
*PanelGLS with AR(1) correction.*
*Caballero-Krishnamurthy (2009) prediction: sovereign supply coefficient larger post-GFC.*